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There is little in this chapter that inspires hope in Israel’s future. The sin of Moses and Aaron meant that Moses would be denied the privilege of leading Israel into Canaan (vv.2-13), and Aaron would die in the wilderness (vv.22-29). Between the death notice of Miriam and the proleptic announcement of Moses' death, and the death of Aaron, is the account of Edom’s stubborn refusal to allow Israel passageway through her territory (vv.14-21). Thus two major problems asserted themselves. How would Israel ever make it to Canaan with hurdles like recalcitrant Edomites in the way, and an indispensable leader like Moses out of the way?
It is ironic that a ceremony dealing with provision of “the water of cleansing” (19:20, italics mine) is now followed by an account of Moses and Aaron producing water from a rock. Again it is ironic that the event that met the real physical needs of the people (there was no water) was the same event that led to Aaron’s death and Moses' demise. Thus mercy and judgment operated concurrently.
Told by God to speak to the rock (v.8), Moses instead struck the rock twice (v.11), after giving the grumbling Israelites a tongue lashing (v.10b; see Ps 106:33b). In his words to Moses (v.12) the Lord did not repeat Moses' actual actions but rebuked him because he did not trust in [him] and honor [him] as holy. As a result, Aaron and Moses will be denied leadership of the community (v.12b). Their mutual lack of trust undercut God’s mercy to Israel. Stubborn Edomites can be handled diplomatically, but unfaithful leadership is another matter. Moses opened this chapter by burying his sister and concluded it by burying his brother. Between, he buried his own destiny.